Integrated Model Development capacity building workshop
The Integrated Model Development workshop was held on the afternoon of 29 October 2024 at Shandong University, Weihai, in the context of the first in-person General Assembly of the project. The aim of the workshop was to familiarise all project partners with the modelling frameworks used in EU-CHINA BRIDGE and provide a first introduction to these tools to interested students of Shandong University. The workshop began with opening remarks from Prof. Xu Zhao, who introduced the presenters and set the stage for discussions on the use and capabilities of advanced modelling tools.
The first presentation, led by Dr Heran Zheng, focused on MRIO databases such as GTAP and the common shortcomings of these databases, including low update frequency and low detail for small economies. Dr Zheng also stressed the importance of looking at emerging economies; of the 158 countries with national emission mitigation policies, more than 76% are emerging economies. Dr Zheng then presented the EMERGING model, a real-time I/O model for emerging countries, representing 135 sectors in 245 economies over 2015-2022 based on bilateral trade data and statistics. EMERGING also provides an extensive input-output dataset for China at city level.
Dr Panagiotis Fragkos presented modelling tools for policy setting in the EU, focusing on the PRIMES model, which is widely utilized for energy system modelling and scenario analysis. Energy System Models such as PRIMES have a multidisciplinary foundation, integrating economics, operational research, and engineering to support investment decision-making and the design of energy systems. PRIMES incorporates large datasets and structural relations to evaluate energy supply and demand dynamics, with specific modules for buildings, industrial, and transportation sectors. A notable feature of PRIMES is its ability to simulate intra-annual electricity markets, analyzing scenarios across 8,760 hours annually.
Dr Fragkos emphasized the model's role in assessing the EU Climate Target Plan for 2040, exploring pathways to achieve 90-95% emissions reductions through scenarios that include electrification, hydrogen adoption, and circular economy strategies. PRIMES integrates with other models, such as GEM-E3 for economic impacts and GAINS for non-CO2 emissions, providing a comprehensive view of policy implications. Dr. Fragkos also addressed challenges in implementing decarbonization strategies, such as high costs, technological uncertainties, and the need for competitiveness in global markets, highlighting the importance of policy alignment and sector-specific insights for successful climate action.
Dr. Nicklas Forsell and Vicky Jia presented on the GLOBIOM (Global Biosphere Management Model) and G4M (Global Forest Model), emphasizing their applications in assessing land-use dynamics, bioenergy, forestry, and agriculture under various environmental and policy scenarios. GLOBIOM integrates multiple modules—fisheries, crops, livestock, forestry, and bioenergy—to evaluate the interactions between these sectors at a granular level. The model uses high-resolution spatial data (1x1 km for the EU), remote sensing inputs, and calibration with Eurostat datasets to provide insights into the impacts of land-use changes on food systems and emissions. G4M complements GLOBIOM by focusing on forest dynamics, including afforestation, deforestation, and forest management practices. The models have been successfully used in policy applications such as IPCC scenarios, UNEP reports, and reports of the International Civil Aviation Organization on biofuels for aviation.
Dr. Lena Höglund presented the GAINS (Greenhouse Gas - Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies) model, emphasizing its capacity to evaluate the impacts of non-CO2 greenhouse gases and air pollutants across multiple sectors and with high spatial resolution. The GAINS model is a process-based tool that calculates emissions as the product of activity levels, emission factors, and the effectiveness of control measures. It integrates data from various external sources, such as PRIMES for energy inputs and FAO for agricultural inputs, while endogenously modelling waste, wastewater, and biogas consumption. The model also provides insights into the health and ecosystem impacts of emissions, such as acidification, eutrophication, and particulate matter pollution.
Dr. Panagiotis Fragkos also presented the GEM-E3 and PROMETHEUS models, which are key tools for analyzing climate and environmental policies' economic and energy dimensions. GEM-E3 (General Equilibrium Model for Energy-Economy-Environment) is a multi-sectoral economic model designed to simulate the interactions between economic actors such as households, governments, firms, and banks. It incorporates input-output tables and simulates the effects of energy and climate policies on macroeconomic and sectoral performance. The model works with PRIMES for EU-focused analyses, linking economic outcomes to energy system transitions and feeding back results to refine scenarios. The PROMETHEUS model, on the other hand, is an integrated assessment model (IAM) focusing on global energy systems and environmental dynamics. PROMETHEUS is used to explore the transition pathways for energy systems under varying technological, policy, and market assumptions.
The workshop concluded with a panel discussion moderated by Prof. Zhao on the integration of EU and Chinese modelling approaches and the challenges of tailoring tools for diverse contexts. Dr Forsell provided closing remarks, underscoring the importance of cross-regional collaboration and capacity building for advancing climate modelling and policy design.
