Co-creating scenario narratives for low-carbon transitions in the EU and China

In order to define the scenario narratives and modelling assumptions for analysing low-carbon transitions in the EU and China, E3M and ICCS organised a co-creation online workshop in the context of the EU–CHINA BRIDGE project. The workshop took place in April 2025 and engaged representatives from European Commission services, international institutions, research and academia, industries, think tanks, and NGOs. Stakeholder engagement was based on a structured approach that combined real-time prioritisation and facilitated group feedback. 

Participants reviewed nine policy and research topics presented by the moderators and used a two-phase voting process to identify the most relevant issues for in-depth discussion. As a result, five priority topics emerged: 1) geopolitical tensions and trade fragmentation, 2) EU–China cooperation in green technologies and decarbonisation, 3) socioeconomic and distributional impacts of the net-zero transition, 4) industrial competitiveness within the EU Clean Industrial Deal, and 5) digitalisation and electrification driven by AI and data centres. See Table 1 for more detailed recommendations. 

Table 1. Summary of stakeholder recommendations by topic and ranking 

Building on these insights, E3M developed scenario narratives that reflect the range of possible pathways for each topic (Table 1). For example, the geopolitical tensions dimension encompasses three narratives: an international cooperation narrative, a fragmentation narrative that assumes increasing protectionism and tariffs, and a regional rivalry narrative. Similarly, the EU–China cooperation topic ranges from strong partnerships in green technology to more fragmented interactions. 

In the socioeconomic and distributional impacts dimension, the scenarios contrast cost-optimal transitions with equitable and just transition approaches that include revenue recycling and targeted support for the most vulnerable groups. The Clean Industrial Deal narratives explore ways to strike a balance between competitiveness and decarbonisation, including the potential role of carbon revenues in supporting low-carbon investments in energy-intensive industries. Finally, the digitalization and electrification narratives consider scenarios where AI and data centres increase system costs, as well as others where digital tools help manage demand and improve flexibility. 

These narratives are integrated into four main scenario storylines (Figure 1) that vary by climate policy ambition and level of international cooperation: Low-carbon Collaboration (S1), Low-carbon Nationalism (S2), Current Trends (S3), and Fossil Protectionism (S4). Additional variants further explore the equity, competitiveness, and the energy system implications of the digital economy, ensuring that the scenarios reflect stakeholder input and broader project objectives. 

Figure 1. Main scenarios to be explored in the EU-CHINA BRIDGE project 

Overall, this study defined a coherent and robust scenario framework that incorporates stakeholder perspectives and addresses global and regional uncertainties. It captures how competitiveness, equity, technological change, and international cooperation intersect with the low-carbon transition, laying the foundation for the quantitative modelling of the project.

For more details, read Deliverable 6.1 of EU-CHINA BRIDGE.